TITANIUM DIOXIDE INDUSTRY ANALYSIS SUMMARY 2023 

PRODUCTION: Within the year, a number of factories in China new production capacity landing, the industry's overall supply scale increased, in 2023, China's titanium dioxide industry total output reached 4.16 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, an increase of 6.3%.

SALES: From January to November 2023, China's exports of titanium dioxide accumulated about 1.4983 million tons, an increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219,200 tons. The share of exports has steadily increased.

PRICE: While the overall low price is running, the seasonal changes in the strength of supply and demand make the price show the characteristics of stage ups and downs. According to commodity data monitoring, the overall market price of titanium dioxide in 2023 has risen. The price increase for the year was 3.45%.

Titanium dioxide production statistics in 2023

    In 2023, there are 42 full-process titanium dioxide production enterprises with normal production conditions in the whole industry (excluding post-processing/post-processing enterprises), and the total amount of rutile type (including sulfuric acid process crude products, finished products, and chlorination products) and anatase titanium dioxide and other related products produced by these 42 enterprises reached 4.28 million tons. Excluding the raw products purchased for surface treatment (to avoid duplicate statistics), the actual output was 4.16 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, or 6.3%, over the previous year. 

    Among the 4.16 million tons of titanium dioxide and related products, rutile type products were 3.6 million tons, accounting for 86.53% of the total output, an increase of 3.22 percentage points over the previous year; Anatase type was 420,000 tons, accounting for 10.10% of the total output, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous year; Non-pigment grade and other types of products were 140,000 tons, accounting for 3.37%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous year. 

    In the total output of 4.16 million tons of titanium dioxide, the chloride process product was 692,000 tons, a substantial increase of 195,000 tons over the previous year, an increase of 39.33%. chloride process products accounted for 16.63% of the total production of titanium dioxide, accounting for 19.22% of the production of rutile products, are significantly increased compared with the previous year. 

    In 2023, among the 42 comparable production enterprises, the output increased in 28, accounting for 66.67%; 11 companies fell, accounting for 26.19%.

Titanium dioxide import and export data

    According to customs data, from January to November 2023, China's imports of titanium dioxide accumulated about 73,300 tons, down 40.46% year-on-year, and imports decreased by 49,800 tons. The decline in titanium dioxide imports is mainly due to the light domestic market, limited demand for titanium dioxide, and high cost pressure on enterprises. 

    According to customs data, from January to November 2023, China's exports of titanium dioxide accumulated about 1.4983 million tons, an increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219,200 tons. The export share has steadily increased, and the new production capacity of titanium dioxide has a certain positive. Coupled with the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity in the international market, it is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports, and titanium dioxide exports will continue to rise steadily in the future.

Price analysis of titanium dioxide

    First of all, it is expected that the domestic titanium dioxide market price trend is roughly divided into four stages of two consecutive rises and falls: the bottom rebound up (January-May) - summer is expected to weaken (June-July) - autumn stock opening (August-October), winter wait-and-see down (November-December) Overall, the annual price formation logic is still composed of supply and demand, costs and expectations.

    At the same time, due to the weak bearish impact of long cycle demand has been basically digested at the beginning of the year, so the price rises and falls during the year are mostly due to the seasonal changes in the volume of titanium dioxide downstream caused by the stage of supply and demand changes, the demand side of the overall slightly ahead of time, that is, most downstream choose to take goods at the low price point before the peak season (March, August), This also promotes the price rise slightly ahead of our traditional peak season division, which is a more prominent new feature of the market this year.

    In 2023, the overall market price of titanium dioxide rose. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 15933.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 16483.33 yuan/ton, and the price rose within the year, the range was 3.45%.

Future market forecast of titanium dioxide

    In 2024, new production projects of titanium dioxide products continue to be released, but the terminal coating industry has entered the development stage of stock, so the change of the status quo of titanium dioxide products and downstream oversupply still needs time to digest, industrial chain profits or continue to transfer upstream, while raw material prices along the industrial chain to the downstream transmission impact or enhance, the low price of the operation stage or still continue.

    1, 2024 new home sales market is still facing greater pressure, if the future real estate market is expected to improve, the cash flow of housing enterprises to improve, superimposed old residential renovation, urban village transformation and other favorable factors, the titanium dioxide market will bring certain benefits, sales scale or can achieve small growth. 

    2, China's titanium dioxide market new capacity increase, public data show that it is expected that 2024 domestic titanium dioxide production capacity or will reach 6 million tons, monthly production will exceed 500,000 tons. The international market share has steadily increased, and the export volume of titanium dioxide in 2023 is expected to be 1.63 million tons, and the export volume of titanium dioxide in 2024 is expected to reach 1.8 million tons. The future export share steadily increases, and the new production capacity of titanium dioxide has a certain positive. Coupled with the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity in the international market, it is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports, and titanium dioxide exports will continue to rise steadily in the future. 

    3, the domestic supply of raw materials titanium concentrate is still in a tight situation, the price continues to run at a high level, and the cost has formed a strong support for titanium dioxide. In summary, in the case of capacity increase rate or will be greater than the demand, titanium dioxide enterprises are still facing greater pressure in 2024.

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